Battle of the Heavyweights

Hello fellow Jackalope fans!  I'm back, and as most of you probably already know, the Jacks won their series against Texas three games to one after absolutely dominating the Brahmas in game four by a final of 5-0.  Yes, that's right, the Jacks shutout the Brahmas in the clinching game for Odessa, which makes the Jacks 8-1 game seven loss at the NYTEX Sports Centre from a couple of seasons ago hurt a little less.  It was also great to see our team on the right side of the end-of-series handshake on home ice as it has been a long time since we Jackalope fans got to witness that.  My family and I got to watch the Jacks eliminate the Bucks a couple of seasons ago at the LEA (then the LEC) against the Bucks in an absolute thriller (maybe the most exciting game I have ever watched as a Jackalope fan), but this was the first time since (I believe) the Jacks defeated Austin a few seasons ago at the ECC that the home fans got to watch their team clinch a playoff series at the Jack Shack.  It was definitely great to see.

But, the most important thing was that the Jacks eliminated the bulls to move on to the next round (which we will get to in a moment), they sent the Brahmas to the golf course for the second season in a row, and finally the deciding round three of the epic Jackalopes versus Brahmas playoff series over the last three seasons goes in the Jackalopes favor with this series victory.  As Brien Rea said during the post-game show, the cow bells definitely were not ringing after game four at the ECC!  In all seriousness, though, I know I speak for all Jackalope fans when I say we will miss our heated rivalry that the Jacks have developed with the Brahmas over the last few seasons.

Moving on, lets talk about the Berry Conference Semi-Finals shall we?  In this five game series we will get to see our Jackalopes take on the Governor Cup champs themselves, the Allen Americans.  Of course, Jackalope fans as well as the Jackalopes players and coaches still have to have a sour taste in their mouths after being eliminated in game seven of the conference finals by Allen last season.  The Jacks were bitten by the infamous Governor's Cup curse last season, so I know we are all hoping the roles are reversed this season.  That said, I have dissected the numbers of both teams over their last fifteen games of the regular season as well as their round one playoff series, and I must say that this should be a battle of two titans in what should be a very exciting series.  They have very similar numbers, which we will get to in a few moments, so the Jacks have to play their best hockey and take the series one game at a time in order to be successful.  I think that's stating the obvious, so lets go ahead and move on to the actual numbers.  After all, the numbers do not lie.

  Over the Americans last ten games of the regular season, they sported a record of 6-3-1, with 39 goals for and 33 goals against for a goal differential of +6 over the span.  Pretty good, right?  But, believe it or not, the Jacks actually were just a tad bit better during their last ten games of the regular season as they went 7-2-1, with 40 goals for and 26 goals against for a goal differential of +14.  To go back even a little further, Allen was 9-5-1 over their last fifteen games of the regular season, with 57 goals for and 49 goals against for a goal differential of +8.  But, once again the Jacks were just a tad bit better over the same stretch as they had a 10-4-1 record for their last fifteen games of the regular season, with 66 goals for and 50 goals against for a goal differential of +16.  Very, very similar numbers for both teams as the regular season started to come to a close, with the Jacks having a slightly better record.  But, the main thing that caught my eye when breaking down the numbers were the goal differentials for both teams over this span of time.  Over the Jacks' last fifteen games of the regular season, they scored sixteen more goals than they gave up.  Their offense was absolutely on fire, but somewhat surprisingly (considering how much the defense struggled early on) they were playing very good defense as well.  Conversely, over Allen's last fifteen games of the regular season, they only scored eight more goals than they gave up.  Not only that, but the Jacks also (over this stretch of games) scored nine more goals than the team that scored more goals than any other team in the CHL during the regular season.  What I take from these regular season numbers is that the Jacks are just as good as the Allen Americans, and have certainly been proving that over the last couple of months.  They just need to continue on with this great play.

  Moving on, lets go ahead and break down the numbers for both teams in the playoffs.  Lets start with the Americans first.  Allen swept the Killer Bees right out of the playoffs in convincing fashion.  No real surprise there as the Bees struggled all season, and it was as if they and Laredo were both trying their best to be that one team that did not make the playoffs in the Berry Conference.  The Americans scored 13 goals in the series with only five against for a goal differential of +8.  That's pretty impressive, but like I said, the Bees really had no chance in that series.  Now lets see what the Jacks did against the Brahmas.  The Jacks won their series against Texas three games to one.  They scored 18 goals while giving up ten to also give them a goal differential of +8.  Once again we see similar numbers from two great teams.  But, believe it or not, the numbers get even more similar when comparing the goaltending stats of both teams' goalies to the point where it's getting downright unbelievable.  In the postseason for Allen, Chris Whitley has a record of 3-0 with a 1.67 goals against average and a save percentage of 94.3%.  On the other hand, Joel Martin for the Jacks has also gone 3-0, also has a 1.67 goals against average, yet he has a slight edge when it comes to save percentage as he has stopped 94.7% of the shots that he has faced.  Their numbers are almost identical!  Now that I've broken down all of these numbers, and I know I've shared a lot with ya'll, I will say that I believe the Jacks have a slight advantage over the Americans not only because of a slight edge in the numbers, but also because the Jacks faced a much tougher opponent in the playoffs than Allen did.  The Jacks (in convincing fashion) defeated a very tough and very experienced Texas Brahmas team.  The Americans, however, predictably decimated a very bad Killer Bees team.  Therefore, I believe the Jacks are a little more battle tested, so to speak, which will hopefully work out in their favor.  Now that we've dissected all of these numbers, I'm going to do what I did in my last post and give the keys to the Jacks success in this series.  Without further ado, here they are:

•  OFFENSE- The Jacks offense has to continue to roll.  They have three players that are in the top five in scoring so far in the playoffs, while Allen's top scorer isn't even in the top twenty.  The Jacks must find the back of the net, and find it as much as humanly possible.  After all, this series could very well turn into a slugfest as both teams have potentially explosive offenses.
• SPLIT- A split for the Jacks in the first two games in Allen is an absolute must.  Stealing both games at the AEC would be amazing (and I actually think it could happen), but losing the first two would more than likely mean the end of the season for the Jacks.  Steal the home ice advantage, guarantee yourself two games at the ECC, and try and finish the job on home ice.
• GOALTENDING- As the numbers prove, both Martin and Whitley have been amazing in the playoffs thus far.  Martin must continue to be hot in net, while the Jacks must find a way to crack Whitley.
• DEFENSE- To bring up the numbers once again, the Jacks have been playing better defense than Allen has over the last couple of months, and that must continue.  The Jacks have to have good defense in order to be successful in this series.  Limit mistakes and turnovers in your own zone, and clear the traffic in front of Martin's net.
• SPECIAL TEAMS-  This is a big key to this series.  For the conspiracy theorists out there, it will definitely be interesting to see how these games are called by the refs.  Allen had the best power play in the regular season, and has the sixth best in the playoffs.  The Jacks had the fifth best power play in the regular season, and have the fourth best in the playoffs.  The penalty kill, however, is where these two teams differ.  Allen had a middle of the pack penalty kill percentage in the regular season, but has been perfect thus far on the penalty kill with a 100% success rate.  The Jacks penalty kill during the regular season was the second worst in the entire CHL.  The PK in the playoffs has not been much better, if at all, so the Jacks MUST stay out of the penalty box as much as possible.  NO STUPID PENALTIES!
• PLAY THEIR GAME- To me, this is the most important key to the Jacks' success.  Everybody knows of Allen's "physical" play.  The Jacks must neutralize this and not fall for the goonery.  They need to unleash Jean Bourbeau and make the Americans think twice before delivering cheap shots behind the play and after this whistle.  However, the Jacks have to protect their skilled players, and if they must fight fire with fire, then they should be more than ready with both Gruenke and Sawyer on their postseason roster.  That said, the Jacks need to spend as much time as possible in the attacking zone, and they really need to capitalize on their chances.  They must hit the net more often, and cash in on those juicy rebounds.  In the very least, they should be able to draw penalties in such instances.
• GOVERNOR'S CUP CURSE- It's time for the curse to bite Allen.  It did the Jacks in last season against these Allen Americans, so hopefully the roles will be reversed and the curse will bite the Americans right in the ass.

PREDICTION:  Jacks win series in 4 games.  I see this series much like I saw the series with Texas.  I see the Jacks splitting the first two in Allen, and then coming home to finish the job at the Jack Shack.  But, I would not be surprised in the least to see this series go to five games.  Still, though, I feel in my bones that the Jacks win this series in four games.

Now that I've concluded this very long blog post, I'm going to go ahead and wrap things up here.  The Jacks begin this series this upcoming Thursday and Sunday in Allen.  The series then shifts to Odessa for game three the following Tuesday (the 19th), with game four at the ECC (if necessary) being played on Thursday the 21st.  If a game five is necessary, it will be played in Allen the following day on the 22nd.  I do have one request before I wrap things up here.  Please show up at the ECC to support this team in a HUGE series.  Grab a friend, sibling, girlfriend, grandma, neighbor, or whoever you can get your hands on and drag them (if necessary) to the Jack Shack to enjoy some very entertaining playoff hockey.  We have had good crowds so far in the playoffs, so lets continue that trend and cheer our boys on to victory.  Hopefully I will be blogging in the next week or so with good news that the Jacks have won this series and will be heading to the conference finals to take on the winner of the Bossier/Tulsa series, but lets not count our chickens before they hatch.


Until next time Jackalope fans all I have to say is GO JACKS GO!!! and so we meet again Allen Americans!